Lunchtime summary
As the clocks ring noon in the City of London, here's the situation.
European and Asia-Pacific stock markets have rallied sharply, after Donald Trump signalled that the Iran was could end soon.
The UK's FTSE 100 share index is up 1.9% now at 10,369 points, up 192 points to a two-week high.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is up 2%, with gains in Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Milan. Earlier, Japan's Nikkei jumped by 5%, with analysts reporting a ‘roar of recovery' in the markets.
Investors are piling back into shares after the US president indicated the conflict with Iran could end in two weeks. Trump said:
double quotation mark Now we're finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we'll do the job. We want to knock out everything they've got.
Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has reportedly said Iran is willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggressionâ€.
These encouraging signs from Washington DC and Tehran have also pushed oil down.
Brent crude fell below the $100 a barrel level this morning, having traded as high as $118 a barrel yesterday. It's now changing hands at $102.92 a barrel.
Hopes of de-escalation, and an easing in the energy crisis, have pushed down the yield (or interest rate) on UK government bonds, and encouraged City traders to bet on fewer interest rate rises this year.
Key events
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UK’s FTSE 100 posts biggest gain in almost a year
And finally…. Britain's stock market has posted its biggest one-day gain in almost a year.
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has closed 188 points higher tonight at 10,364 points, a gain of 1.85%.
Engineering firms Babcock (+9.5%) and Rolls-Royce (+6.6%) ended the day among the top risers, along with catering firm Compass (+7.4%). Banks and airlines also rallied, while oil producers fell as crude prices weakened.
That's the FTSE 100's best day since 14 April 2025, when the markets were rallying as Donald Trump retreated on parts of his trade war with China.
Today's rally was driven by rising optimism that president Trump might signal an end to the Iran war when he addresses the US public tonight (9pm ET, or 2am BST).
Last night, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office “We will be leaving very soon.â€
This has led to strong gains across Europe too; Germany's DAX was up 2.7% in late trading, France's CAC gained more than 2% and Italy's FTSE Mib jumped 3.1%.
Oil remains lower too, with Brent crude trading at $102 a barrel, having yesterday been as high as $118 a barrel.
WIth European markets closed, that wraps up a day in which
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The Bank of England warned that the Iran war had dealt “a substantial negative supply shock†to the world economy.
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UK petrol and diesel prices rose again
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Ryanair warned that jet fuel supply to Europe could be disrupted from May if the Middle East conflict continues.
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UK manufacturers reporting the biggest jump in cost inflation since Black Wednesday in 1992
Our Middle East crisis liveblog is covering all the main developments:
Iran denies asking for ceasefiire
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said US president Donald Trump's statement on Iran requesting a ceasefire was false and baseless, Iranian state TV is reporting (via Reuters).
Iran conflict leads to delays for US manufacturers
US manufacturers have reported that the Iran war has led to noticeable disruptions when ordering stock from suppliers, and exacerbated stock shortages.
The latest poll of purchasing managers from data provider S&P Global has found that average vendor times deteriorated in March, by the most in nearly three-and-a-half years.
US factories also reported that conflict in the Middle East leld to “notable accelerations in both input and output price inflation†– meaning they past on those higher costs to their customers.
But the PMI survey has better news too – US manufacturing performance improved in March, helped by some clients building up their stocks due to the war in the Middle East.
Trump's suggestion that the US will be out of Iran “pretty quickly†is helping to keep the US oil price down today.
US crude, or West Texas Intermediate, is down 2.6% today at $98.73 a barrel, below the $100 a barrel point.
Peter Beaumont
President Trump's Truth Social post claiming that Iran's new president had asked for a ceasefire is problematic in a number of key details, my colleague Peter Beaumont points out.
While Iran might have a new Supreme Leader in Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali who was assassinated in the opening salvoes of the war, it does not have a “new president†who remains exactly the same person as before the start of the war – Masoud Pezeshkian.
If, at a pinch one could argue that, Trump is talking sloppily about the president of a “New Regime†that still remains sharply at odds with most expert analysis which suggests that far from being “less Radicalized†the regime has taken a more hardline and unpredictable turn since Ali Khamenei's killing as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has moved to further consolidate its power.
Even in the event that Pezeshkian is behind an undisclosed ceasefire initiative of some kind – which Iran has not commented on – it is not clear what the status that might means in terms of Tehran's internal power dynamics where the role of Supreme Leader is viewed historically as being more powerful than the office of president.
In a phone call this week with Antonio Costa, president of the European Council, Pezeshkian suggested that Iran could end of the conflict but with the important proviso of guarantees against a repeat attack – which is one of Tehran's key demands and which Trump may be misrepresenting.
“We possess the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression,†Pezeshkian's office said in a statement.
When Iran has commented on contacts through the mediation of Pakistan it has been to suggest that Trump's remarks on progress have been highly exaggerated, a familiar Trump trait both in his interventions in Middle East diplomacy and over the war in Ukraine where repeated claims of imminent breakthroughs have tended not to survive contact with reality.
Amid widespread reporting that Trump is looking for an exit strategy for a deeply unpopular war that he has already become bored with, what seems more likely is that he is trying to shape a narrative that would allow him to say the war has been won.
Trump claims Tehran has asked for a ceasefire, and that US will be out of Iran pretty quickly
Donald Trump has been busy this morning.
First, he's given an interview to Reuters in which he says the US will be “out of Iran pretty quickly†but could return for “spot hitsâ€.
Ahead of his scheduled national address this evening, the US president said he would express his disgust with Nato for not supporting him over the Iran war.
And he teh US president did not give a timeline of when the US could end the war, saying:
double quotation mark “I can't tell you exactly… we're going to be out pretty quickly.â€
Secondly, Trump has claimed on his Truth Social site that Iran has asked for a ceasefire.
He write:
double quotation mark Iran's New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!! President DJT
US stock markets rallies on hopes of end to Iran war
On Wall Street, stocks are rising in early trading as president Donald Trump's comment about an end to the Middle East conflict being close cheers traders.
The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 0.6%, or 267 points, to 46,608 in early trading. Aircraft maker Boeing (+3.8%) is the top riser, followed by construction equipment maker Caterpillar (+3.15%).
That adds to the DJIA's 1,125-point jump yesterday, after Trump suggested the US could end the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
This morning the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, with the tech-focused Nasdaq up 0.9%.
BoE’s Bailey: Markets getting ahead of themselves over rate rise forecasts
The governor of the Bank of England has again claimed the financial markets are getting carried away by expecting the central bank to raise interest rates this year.
In an interview with Reuters, Andrew Bailey suggested it could be a mistake to aassume the BoE will raise borrowing costs this year.
Echoing comments he made last month when the Bank held interest rates, Bailey said:
double quotation mark “(The market)‘s still pricing us to raise rates. I would still say that is a judgment markets have to make but I think they're getting ahead of themselves.â€
As flagged earlier, there has been a fall in interest rate hike expectations this year. The money markets are currently predicting 44 basis points of rates rises by the end of the year, meaning two quarter-point increases are no longer fully priced in. That's down from 75bps (three quarter-point hikes) last week.
Just in: US companies hired more staff than expected last month, despite the eonomic impact of the Iran war.
Payrolls operator ADP reports that private employers added 62,000 jobs in March, beating forecasts of a 40,000 increase.
The smallest employers drove job growth for a second month; companies with between 1 and 19 employees added 112,000 new staff in total.
But hiring in trade, transportation, and utilities continued to decline.
Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, says:
double quotation mark Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.
US stock futures are up
The US stock market is rising in premarket trading, as traders become more optimistic about US military operations in Iran ending soon.
The futures contract for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.8%.
The S&P 500, the broader US stock index, is up 0.9% in pre-market trading, while the tech-focused Nasdaq is on track for a rise of almost 1.2%, when trading begins in under an hour and a half.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose by 4.7% today – its biggest one-day increase since November 2022, Reuters reports.
Iran war may increase mortgage payments for extra 1.3m UK households, says Bank of England
The Bank of England's latest financial stability report also shows that the US-Israel war on Iran could end up increasing monthly mortgage payments for more than one million more UK households, my colleague Kalyeena Makortoff reports.
Financial market jitters over the conflict in the Middle East have resulted in banks pulling about 1,500 mortgage products, with many banks raising interest rates on their remaining 7,000 home loan products in recent weeks, the Bank's financial policy committee (FPC) said.
The increases, named “Trumpflation†after the US president, have put pressure households preparing to sign on to new mortgage contracts, with the Bank now forecasting that about 5.2 million borrowers – or roughly 58% of borrowers across the country – could face higher mortgage payments by the end of 2028.
