From a supply perspective, one of Spain's main strengths is its low direct exposure to the Persian Gulf. Around 10% of the country's oil imports come from the region (mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq), while for natural gas this percentage is less than 2%, primarily from Qatar. This limited dependency reduces the risk of physical supply disruptions. However, the global nature of these markets means that a sustained increase in geopolitical tensions is reflected in prices regardless of the origin of the imports.
Compared to the EU as a whole, Spain has a slightly lower exposure to the Persian Gulf, but a greater dependence on Algeria and Nigeria for oil and gas imports, as well as on the US in the case of gas. The important role of Algeria as a source of gas imports represents a comparative advantage, as it is primarily transported via pipeline. This type of supply is less likely to be redirected to other markets and, therefore, tends to be more stable than liquefied natural gas (LNG). Moreover, this lower capacity to be redirected, together with the absence of costs associated with liquefaction and regasification, tends to result in a lower price compared to LNG.
Another relevant structural factor is the accumulated improvement in the energy efficiency of the Spanish economy. Since the beginning of the century, energy intensity, measured as the amount of energy required to generate 1,000 euros of GDP at constant prices, has decreased by about a third. This progress helps to cushion the macroeconomic impact of rising energy costs by limiting the increase in production costs and, ultimately, in final prices. Opposing these favourable elements, Spain's main weakness remains its high energy dependency on foreign sources: 70% of the country's energy needs must be met through imports, a rate that is only 5 percentage points lower than at the turn of the century.
Overall, although the war in Iran introduces a new focal point of tension in international energy markets, the limited direct exposure to the Persian Gulf, advances in energy efficiency, and advantages in the electricity market all place the Spanish economy in a favourable position to absorb the shock. However, the country's high dependence on foreign energy remains a source of vulnerability. This balance indicates that, although Spain remains exposed to a price shock, it has certain structural elements that could mitigate its impact compared to recent episodes.
