EasyJets stock drops 5% as the Middle East conflict, fuel costs weigh on bookings outlook

EasyJet‘s stock fell on Thursday after the European airline warned the Iran war and higher fuel prices are weighing on customer bookings.

The group said it took on roughly £25 million ($34 million) in additional fuel costs in March alone as global oil prices soared, and it expects airline costs to remain tied to volatile fuel prices over the coming months.

Shares dropped as much as 8.7%, before paring losses to last trade down 5%.

The carrier said it expects to report a headline loss before tax between £540 million and £560 million for the six months to March 31. The company is due to report its full first-half results on May 21.

EasyJet outlined a «shortened booking curve» in recent weeks, as customers are leaving it later to book tickets, making it harder to predict future sales.

Its bookings for the rest of the year are slightly weaker than last year, with 63% of third-quarter tickets sold, down 2 percentage points on the same time last year. Meanwhile, 30% of fourth-quarter tickets have been sold, also down 2 percentage points from the prior year.

The airline also flagged «high sensitivity to demand,» noting that a 1% move in third-quarter revenue per seat would impact overall revenue by £26 million, increasing to £33 million in the fourth quarter.

However, the budget airline said it hedged 70% of its summer fuel, with the price locked in advance at $706 per metric ton of jet fuel. The remaining portion is still vulnerable to volatile fuel prices, with every $100 movement in prices equating to £40 million of costs in the second half of 2026.

«EasyJet’s financial strength from our investment grade balance sheet and £4.7 billion of liquidity mean we are well placed to navigate current geopolitical challenges while remaining focused on our medium term targets,» EasyJet’s CEO Kenton Jarvis said.

Analysts warned that Europe is at risk of a «systemic» jet fuel shortage within the next few weeks if the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

«There are many warnings of looming shortages in the weeks ahead, if there’s no supply coming again,» Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, said Tuesday on CNBC’s «Squawk Box Europe.»

«We’ve seen these vessels now stopping, so supplies from the Middle East have run out, and we need replacements,» Luman added.

ACI Europe, which represents airports across the EU, said a shortage would disrupt the summer travel season and have «harsh economic impacts.»

Many EU member states benefit from an economic boost via the summer travel season, with air travel generating 851 billion euros (nearly $1 trillion) in GDP for European economies a year and supporting 14 million jobs, per ACI Europe.